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Water AetherwingTier 2
at Store championship gameforce 22-11
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Undertow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |